Coronavirus Facts and Fiction - January - May 2020 [Closed]

Now that’s a post lol

2 Likes

Hahahahahhaha awesome @Olbrannon

1 Like

Oooooooh boy…

Odd that this is not getting more coverage.

5 Likes

As of 4/1:


6 Likes

Are those numbers correct? It starts 01/03/2020 and ends 01/04/202, let’s say 31 days, 5,334 deaths in US. Even yesterday there were 232.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Maybe it’s comparing world wide COVID-19 to American causes of death?

EDIT: It’s seems to be right, there were 1,049 deaths yesterday and the day before, just slowed down today because the day is not over

2 Likes

Good point, I “think” that’s deaths per day in the US.

Haven’t has time compare the underlying data with the John Hopkins data but will take a look later.

Check out the visualization link, it’s animated.

3 Likes

Damn, I didn’t think it was that bad in the US. Hope everyone down south stays safe :heart:

4 Likes

I think it’s right, there was a large jump over the past few days. Hopefully it doesn’t stay that high for too long.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

  • Projections: 100,000 - 240,000 total deaths in the US from COVID-19 [video segment] (down from 1.5 - 2.2 million deaths without mitigation: social distancing, staying home, washing hands). But if guidelines are followed perfectly by everyone, then the numbers can be lower, or even significantly lower

  • Assuming full mitigation: peak of 2,214 daily deaths on April 15

3 Likes

USA is a huge country with I believe over 300 million people. But yeah you’re right its quite saddening to see so much loss of life.

7 Likes

this is the problem with data visualization and manipulation. That number is now 2 days later at 5000+

2 Likes

Yeah, it’s easy to look at the numbers and say it’s a small percentage of the population (240,000 / 300,000,000). At the same time it’s a lot of people. Still my :heart: goes out to anyone affected.

9 Likes

The 5K is the total over whatever time scale. The above chart is daily in the US. It wasn’t clear what was being reported at first.

I looked at the data and it looks reasonable based on the reported data.

Here: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_daily_reports/04-01-2020.csv

6 Likes

It’s an exponential. Things change FAST. Deaths per day should double every 3-5 days until we can really flatten the curve with isolation.

8 Likes

the data is always suspect. You want the first derivative of the curve and the numbers for those others are stable lines.

5 Likes

Yeah, I though it was like 30% increase over the past day but it doubled quick.

3 Likes

This seems like pretty bad timing to me.

https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-medal-programs/america-the-beautiful-quarters/national-park-of-american-samoa

13 Likes

On the bright side, if it hits their predictions then it will be the highest cause of death for a week and peak on the 15th @ over 2,000. Then should drop down on either the flattening curve or cliff depending on the situation :slight_smile:

5 Likes

It’s good to wonder. Especially these days.

The data is in the above github link. Din’t have the time to verify with any sort of precision but it does look in-line from a casual look-see.

The first derivative is the rate of change over time (slope). What is being reported and animated is the daily numbers, the smallest discrete values that are being supplied (there is no-slope). Another graph could be generated to illustrate the rate of increase.

The numbers that are provided as reference values likely come from the CDC and are average numbers overall, the true underlying dataset on a daily basis is probably somewhere but it’s also probably not publicly available. It’s provided as a yearly summation, then they divide by 365.

For instance: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/heart-disease.htm

3 Likes