Can’t ever have enough toilet paper 
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Somehow I don’t think this is is how capitalism works. The govt does not price fix your potato chips.
The market’s already mostly priced in a 25bp hike, roughly 70% consensus last I read; usually the Fed goes along with that. If they hike 50bp, there’s going to be more instability, not less, as market makers need to scramble to get their portfolios in line with new expectations. Unless they want to signal that interest rates have much higher to go, they’ll probably stick with 25. That’ll also put them at 4.75-5% overnight bank funding rate, which they’ve been telegraphing for the past year as the highest they should need to go. After that, I expect it’ll be based on CPI reports and whether the banking sector continues to bleed money. Fiat currency is a confidence game, after all - if people don’t believe it has value, it doesn’t. So, like any good con artiste, the Fed has to gauge the reactions of its audience. Right now, its audience is sick and tired of the show.
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@Cormoran
Good stuff https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
While the fed follows the market remember the odds can change quickly and drastically. My biggest worry is because market indicators are lagging that this cpi will not show as much progress on the inflation front. Lets not forget inflation is “transitory” lol.
Still don’t think the fallout from banking sector has had it’s full effect, I think Lehman took like 8 months to unwind.
Cpi is going to be big. Powell has signaled the fed will be data dependent for awhile now. Can’t help but to wonder what if cpi comes in hot because inflation is stickier then expected and the fact the data is backwards looking.
Either way folks should be taking advantage of these interest rates… 4.5% in BIL about the safest way to get a return with little risk.
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Yep, people are already starting to look ahead to the next big crisis; something like $3.3 trillion in commercial real estate loans is coming due by the end of the year, and defaults could cause more banking chaos since they loaded up on CRE in 2020. Mostly regional and community banks that are under the microscope, since everyone knows the too-big-to-fail banks are still too big to fail; they’ve just had their acronym changed and are now GSIBs. At least they’re not bailing out management and stockholders with the most recent collapses, just spending the minimum possible to guarantee deposits.
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Agreed on commerical real estate. As far as everything else goes…“the banking system is sound and resilient” lol.
This insurance of deposits is becoming a use and setup for abuse if the fed will not spell out guidelines of who they will insure and for how much. Monetary policy shouldn’t be so open to interpretation.
Going to be interesting to watch and maybe some money to be made.
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Up here the BoC has basically said there’s a whole generation that’s screwed, sorry.
I know so many people who bought houses at the top of the market and now they’re not worth what they thought they were and their mortgage payment has doubled. Not me, but it’s really bad.
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It takes two dumb dumbs…One to sign on the dotted line and one to loan the money.
Do Canadians have fixed rate loans as a option?
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Yes but I think it has less to do with their ignorance and more that they are of house buying age. Just very bad timing.
And yes fixed rates exist.
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All I can say is I’m very fortunate I am an only son and my dads place is paid off.
I bought my first home in FL in 2006 178.500 Fannie Mae 4% fixed
In 2008 when the market crashed I rented it and moved back to OR. It appraised for 30K in 2010. Carried it until 2015 Fannie Mae short sold it for 100K 2015. Cleared it. American dream yeah right. Hold on to a home for 7 years to make money. That’s the way it’s suppose to work. Makes me sick what these kids today have to bite off to own a home. Disgusting.
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Yeah it’s really ugly
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I still don’t want to use yuan. 🥸 
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I was just saying that the bank across the street is too cheap to hire mandarin speakers even though that’s half their clientele.
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2,010.00 USD for an ounce of gold, today.
In the early 80’s, when I was buying investment information. I was wanting to consider buying a house, also getting the best return, on my money without getting into stock and bonds.
I read, that simply follow the price the price of gold, to see forward in the markets.
Back then the consensus was if gold every broke the $1000.00 an ounce level, then the financial markets will be in chaos. Interest rates would be very high.
If we ever get to $2,000.00 an ounce, it would have world wide repercussions, with bank failures, aggressive interest hikes, savings wiped out due to high costs. Products you buy, the amount of product, cut in half, and price punched up, so a double whammy to families.
However, we added a spectacular level of stupidity to the mix, in 2008 when the banking scumbags, got cough in derivative trading schemes, some illegal, all underhanded, and designed to funnel money to them. After breaking a world wide system, they created the most horrifying financial bomb ever created, when the words *TO BIG TO FAIL * were uttered and made into our normal thinking as good! You are seeing and living through this correction now, and until the end of your days, the end of your children’s days, and theirs, ect, ect.
Good luck to everyone.
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Agreed. I’ll just add too big not to be nationalized.
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kind of a double edged whammy there…considering the clown-icity of politicians & bureaucracy…could be made even worse. Gotta nationalize the govt first! 
But agreed that removing opportunity for monkeybusiness is a guiding principle in de-mucking the collective up-fuckery.
chairman of the bored 
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Too big to be allowed to live.
There’s a telecommunications company up here that has a monopoly. Their internet broke which means all of the Canadian internet was broken for a whole day. Totally beholden to them. No work for anyone. Like a snow day. Economy, halted.
I’m no fan of politicians nor of their fine work but if profits from these enterprises go into the public coffers that’s a win.
It used to be like that up here. We just sold off all of our profitable infrastructure for short term dollars.
There’s a toll road here, built with public money, sold to a private corporation which now profits off the tolls that exist because of public dollars.
We’ve done it with electricity and other things too…
Penny wise pound foolish.
It’s a big problem. Many Canadians have forgotten that it used to be this way.
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(You’re better off not mentioning Marx.)
I’m inclined to agree but it presses the stupid button on a lot of people when you use it.
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